Top Outfield Trade Targets Ahead of the Deadline
With rumors swirling daily and the all-star break upon us, it’s time to look at the market for a potential upgrade to the lineup. This post will focus mainly on outfield upgrades, as that appears to be the biggest need and the most rumored target, according to several MLB insiders.
Tier 1 (Impact bats):
Jarren Duran (CF/LF Boston Red Sox)
Age: 28
Bat: L Throw: L
Contract: Team control through the 2028 season
Pros: Duran continues to be one of the most sought-after outfielders who could be on the trading block later this month. He checks many boxes for the Phillies. Despite playing more left field this season (Cedanne Rafaela has taken over in CF and has been an elite defender), he graded out as an above-average center fielder last season. He would likely see more time there if he ends up in Philadelphia. Regardless of his outfield position, the bat profiles well anywhere in the outfield. Duran’s slower first half to the season means he’ll probably struggle to match the .288/.343/.489 slash line he averaged over the previous two seasons. Still, he’s red hot as of late and the underlying numbers such as average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are at career highs. He brings plenty of speed to the lineup, and would likely see a bit of a power boost playing at Citizens Bank Park where right field is shallower than at Fenway except for immediately down the line.
Cons: There are really only two major hold-ups to a potential Duran deal. The Red Sox are playing their best baseball of the season even after trading franchise cornerstone Rafael Devers. They currently hold a wildcard spot in a very weak American League and have won seven in a row. The other issue is the prospect price. With long-term team control comes a sky-high asking price. The Phillies would likely have to part with two of their top five prospects and probably two middle-value tier prospects to get a deal across the finish line. This could hurt their chances of landing high-leverage relief help.
Byron Buxton (CF Minnesota Twins)
Age: 31
Bat: R Throw: R
Contract: Signed through the 2028 season at around $15 mil/year
Pros: Buxton is a clear fit for this Phillies team on paper. For as much as Duran checks most of the boxes, Buxton checks all of them. He’s an elite center fielder, has blazing speed, and is the right-handed bat with power that the Phillies have sorely missed since the departure of Rhys Hoskins. Simply put, he’s a game-changer and a player who would dramatically change the look of the middle of the Phillies lineup. The Twins have gone through some highly publicized changes of late including a potential sale of the team on the table. It’s unclear if the current mandate to trim payroll will be in effect at the deadline or if a potential sale this upcoming offseason could change the equation.
Cons: Despite his dynamic play, Buxton isn’t without his warts. He’s missed significant time in the last few seasons with a myriad of knee, back, hip, and arm injuries. Some of these have been just unlucky injuries while others have been a recurring issue. Regardless, in Buxton's ten-year career, he has played more than 100 games only twice. The cheap contract for the next few seasons and lack of other high-impact center fielders on the market will make Buxton highly sought after, but the injury risk and length of the contract could make some teams less willing to part with premium assets in a deal.
Steven Kwan (LF Cleveland Guardians)
Age: 27
Bat: L Throw: L
Contract: Under team control through the 2027 season
Pros: Steven Kwan doesn’t miss…literally. He’s the definition of a contact or slap hitter who is just an impossible at-bat for opposing pitchers. He’s in the 100th percentile for whiff rate (yes you read that correctly) and 99th percentile for strikeout rate. Stating the obvious here, but that’s a very different type of hitter that the Phillies just don’t have on the roster currently. Kwan is also used to hitting leadoff as a high OBP table setter. This means the Phillies could get creative with how they order Turner, Harper, and Schwarber in the lineup.
Cons: He’s another lefty bat in an already imbalanced lineup. While that may not be a big concern if Kepler is moved, the real issue is that Kwan doesn’t offer much meaningful power. He generates very little bat speed and average exit velocities that are among the lowest in the league.
Tier 2 (Platoon/lower impact bats):
Rob Refsnyder (LF/RF Boston Red Sox)
Age: 34
Bat: R Throw: R
Contract: Free agent after this season
Pros: Refsnyder does one thing really well, rake against left-handed pitching. He’s the perfect platoon partner for Brandon Marsh in left or a bench bat in case a team brings in a tough lefty late in games. Since joining the Red Sox in 2022, Refsnyder has posted an average OPS against lefties of over .900. The Phillies currently have one player with an OPS over .800 against left-handed pitching, Kyle Schwarber. Refsnyder likely wouldn’t cost much prospect capital as a rental and pure platoon corner outfield status.
Cons: This scenario still wouldn’t really solve the Phillies issues in CF or their need for a bonafide middle of the order power bat. As with Duran, the Red Sox may not be looking to trade Refsnyder if their recent hot stretch continues.
Taylor Ward (LF Los Angeles Angels)
Age: 31
Bat: R Throw: R
Contract: Under team control through the 2026 season
Pros: Ward is a right-handed hitting power bat that would likely slot into LF for either Marsh or Kepler. He doesn’t chase a ton (88th percentile per baseball savant) and barrels up a lot of baseballs (82nd percentile per baseball savant). He’s not going to hit for a great average or put up good on-base numbers, but he’s running a career-high slugging percentage. A few interesting things stand out when taking a look at his splits.
He’s hit significantly better on the road since the start of 2023
His advantage against lefties isn’t as pronounced this year, but he’s still an above-average hitter against left-handed pitching
He’s running very dramatic splits between day and night games, though his previous seasons point to this just being a very strange anomaly
Cons: The strikeout rate (just above 26%) is his highest since the shortened 2020 season. His whiff rate is actually down compared to last season, but he’s running a career-low swing rate. This combined with his strong chase rate numbers suggests the strikeout numbers could come from an approach that’s a bit too passive.
Adolis Garcia (RF Texas Rangers)
Age: 32
Bat: R Throw: R
Contract: Under team control through the 2026 season
Pros: Garcia has plenty of power, postseason pedigree, and is currently running the lowest strikeout rate of his career. While the slugging percentage is down from his peak, Garcia still posts elite exit velocities and a cannon of an arm in right field. His expected slugging is dramatically above his actual slugging numbers which suggests he’s been very unlucky and more than due for some positive regression to the mean. He’d also benefit from a change of scenery to a much more hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.
Cons: If Phillies fans were frustrated by the lack of plate discipline last postseason, they wouldn’t love Garcia’s free-swinging tendencies. He chases (10th percentile) and whiffs (10th percentile) a ton and also doesn’t walk much at all.
On deck: We’ll take a look at which relievers could be of interest to the Phillies
On the bench: Which Phillies prospects could be traded at the deadline
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