Searching for a Jeff Hoffman Replacement at the Deadline
With the trade deadline looming in just three days, it’s time to take a look at the best relievers on the board for the Phillies. I meant to write this post a week or two ago, but I am glad I waited due to a few big shakeups during this time.
Last Monday, the Phillies signed 40-year-old David Robertson to bolster the bullpen. Robertson was a member of the Phillies bullpen in 2019, where he appeared in seven games before missing the rest of the season with an injury. More notably, Robertson was a 2022 trade deadline acquisition by Dave Dombrowski and pitched to a 2.70 ERA in 23.1 innings down the stretch for the Phils. Robertson also had a solid postseason that year with a 1.17 ERA despite some less-than-stellar underlying numbers. The right-hander was a solid reliever for the Mets last year, posting a 3.00 ERA in 72 innings and a strikeout rate that was above his career average. He has since reported to Lehigh Valley, where he made his first appearance and hit 91-92 mph on the radar.
The second big shakeup to the trade board was the injury to Orioles closer Felix Bautista. The Orioles were always more unlikely to trade their star closer, but if the Phillies offered enough prospect capital, Bautista would’ve been arguably the top closer available.
News came out yesterday that Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase was placed on non-disciplinary paid leave as part of MLB’s sports betting investigation. Given the Guardians' payroll restrictions and ability to develop bullpen arms, Clase was often discussed in trades over the last few weeks.
The loss of two elite closers likely will drive up the price for backend of the bullpen help at the deadline. The Minnesota Twins are the team that arguably controls the bullpen market this year, though the San Diego Padres could get creative and trade for their biggest strength if they’re looking to cut payroll and add a bat.
Jhoan Duran (Closer Minnesota Twins)
Age: 27
Throw: R
Contract: Under team control through the 2027 season
Jhoan Duran is really good. Quite frankly, there’s not much more to say about him. He’s been one of the best relievers in baseball since bursting onto the scene in 2022. The fastball velocity is electric, averaging over 100 mph. Despite the elite velocity, Duran uses it less than his splitter this year. He uses a four-pitch mix that neutralizes hitters from both sides of the plate and is slightly better against lefties than righties. The only thing to nitpick is that his strikeout rate has dropped from elite to only above average over the last two seasons. The cost is going to be exorbitant, especially without Clase and Bautista on the market. He’s the top relief pitcher on the market, and I expect he’ll bring back two top 100 prospects in return to headline a deal.
Griffin Jax (Set-up man, Minnesota Twins)
Age: 30
Throw: R
Contract: Under team control through the 2027 season
On at least 20 other teams without a Duran or Edwin Diaz type, Griffin Jax is probably a closer. The Minnesota Twins know this and are apparently asking for a return that would be similar to a trade involving a premium closer that has years of team control. The 3.91 ERA won’t wow anyone, but the underlying numbers are very good and suggest that Jax has been quite unlucky this year. His expected ERA is nearly a full run lower than his actual number, his strikeout rate (36.9%) is the best of his career, and he gets hitters to chase pitches 40% of the time. He’s a strikeout artist with four main pitches. This is much more of a starting pitcher’s arsenal instead of the typical closer that deploys two main pitches and maybe one additional sparsely used pitch. The issue with Jax is that the price point will likely be that of a closer, but we haven’t seen him in a full-time closer role. He’s been in the shadow of Jhoan Duran during his career thus far, but has had 39 save opportunities. Of those chances, Jax has only converted 15 of them for saves. He’s been very good without using his fastball nearly as much this season, but I do wonder if improving the shape of his fastball would help him a bit in the closer role.
David Bednar (Closer Pittsburgh Pirates)
Age: 30
Throw: R
Contract: Under team control through the 2026 season
After a rough 2024, David Bednar has re-established himself as one of the best closers in the game. His strikeout rate is the best of his career, and his walk rate is the lowest since joining the Pirates in 2021. The biggest difference this year for Bednar is that he’s featuring his curveball much more than at any other point in his career. His curveball usage jumped 14% taking away from the amount he’s using his fastball and splitter. This has helped his fastball become much more effective compared to last year, when hitters were able to wait for that pitch because he threw it more than 55% of the time. The expected stats would argue that Bednar should reduce his fastball even more, as the curveball and splitter have been better weapons this season. I believe that the prospect cost may be less than the asking price for Griffin Jax or Jhoan Duran. Jax and Duran both have an additional year of team control, and Jax’s strikeout rates are the best in the league for a reliever. If I had to guess, Bednar is the name on this list that is most likely to end up with the Phillies.
Ryan Helsley (Closer St. Louis Cardinals)
Age: 31
Throw: R
Contract: Free agent after this season
The Cardinals have struggled in the run-up to the deadline, going 7-15 in their last 22 games. They came into the season looking like a rebuilding team and exceeded expectations for much of the year until July. The Cards likely missed out on trading Helsley at his peak value. He’s a rental now, his strikeout rate has slipped each of the past few seasons, and his hard hit rate looks much more like the pre-2022 breakout version of himself. However, his 2022-2024 run of dominance placed him sixth in saves during the stretch and a 1.83 ERA that was comparable to Clase and Devin Williams during that stretch. The problem with Helsley this season is that opposing hitters are torching his fastball, and since he’s only a fastball-slider guy, he doesn’t have a ton of leeway when one of his pitches just isn’t fooling hitters. The average fastball velocity has dipped slightly this season from 99.6 to 99 mph. Other than that, there’s no obvious change for why he’s suddenly become more hittable. In theory, if a team can make a tweak to his fastball, then he should be right back to the 2022-2024 version. As is, he’s probably less valuable than the three names above him on this list.
Kenley Jansen (Closer Los Angeles Angels)
Age: 37
Throw: R
Contract: Free agent after this season
Jansen has been a closer in the league forever at this point. He’s picked up 466 saves (good for 4th all time) and has a career 2.20 ERA in the postseason. Jansen uses an odd pitch mix with a reliance on his cutter 81% of the time this season. He’ll also throw the occasional sinker to lefties and a slider that probably should be used more, given how hitters have struggled with it this year. The issue with Jansen is that the underlying numbers show that he isn’t what he once was. Hitters are barreling his pitches 10% of the time, and the average exit velocity against him is in the first percentile among the worst in the league. He’s never been much of a groundball pitcher, and at a stadium like Citizens Bank Park, he could be very home run-prone. For this reason, he probably makes more sense for other teams. Still, the combination of a much cheaper price compared to other options and his playoff experience could entice the Phillies.
Other Names To Monitor
Former Phils
Seranthony Dominguez (RHP Baltimore Orioles)
Garrett Cleavinger (LHP Tampa Bay Rays)
Padres that are unlikely to get traded but could if they get creative
Robert Suarez (Closer RHP San Diego Padres)
Jason Adam (Set-up man RHP San Diego Padres)
Young arms that aren’t closers yet but have exciting stuff
Seth Halvorsen (RHP Colorado Rockies)
Reid Detmers (LHP Los Angeles Angels)
Cade Smith (RHP Cleveland Guardians)
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