Breaking Down the Phillies' 2025 Trade Deadline Strategy

This year’s MLB Trade Deadline saw a record-breaking amount of movement in the final hours. The San Diego Padres stole headlines by trading basically their entire farm system in five separate deals. The Phillies made both of their trades with another active team, the Minnesota Twins, who had one of the biggest fire sales in recent memory. 

As much as many fans would’ve liked to see the Phillies grab a big power bat for the lineup, this was seemingly a very weak position player market compared to recent years. Relievers and closers flew off the board while position players were held out of trade discussions along with some prominent starting pitchers (Joe Ryan, Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, etc).

Outside of the two corner infield bats that went to Seattle, the rest of the position player group was headlined by Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn. Players like Luis Robert Jr, Steven Kwan, and Taylor Ward were all held out of trades by their respective teams. This meant the Phillies either had to beat the Padres' package deal offer for Laureano and O’Hearn or look elsewhere for outfield help. Ultimately, they got an outfielder that was in that next tier of bats and closer to the Mets' addition of Cedric Mullins.

Let’s take a look at the Phillies' additions, starting with the big splash that’s already made an incredible Citizens Bank Park debut.

Jhoan Duran (Closer Minnesota Twins)

Age: 27

Throw: R

Contract: Under team control through the 2027 season

The Phillies finally got their guy after a revolving door of closers for several years. I already wrote about Duran in my last post, but I’ll recap a bit here. Duran’s fastball averages 100.2 mph (2nd in MLB), and his splitter averages 97.5 mph (1st in MLB). He’s a flamethrower with a splitter that has wicked movement and a wipeout curveball. Duran has only allowed one home run all season, which puts him among the best relievers in baseball at suppressing the long-ball. It goes without saying, but this is incredibly important in a hitter-friendly environment like Citizens Bank Park. The Phils will need their best infield defense possible when he’s on the mound, as Duran is 2nd among all relievers in groundball rate. The walk rate could be slightly better, and if you want to nitpick, Duran’s strikeout rate is lower than it's been in recent years. Still, he’s got a 2.01 ERA and is a top-five closer in the sport. The Phils paid a premium price, but they got a guy who can lock down games, which has been missing in their last few playoff runs.

Harrison Bader (OF Minnesota Twins)

Age: 31

Bat: R Throw: R

Contract: Mutual option for 2026 season

Harrison Bader was not the big-name bat that much of the fanbase was looking for at the deadline, but he does add a few things to the Phillies' lineup that they currently don’t have. He’s a well-above-average defender all over the outfield and should be the Phillies' center fielder down the stretch. Johan Rojas might have better range and an elite sprint speed, but the gap in defensive capability is minuscule compared to the gap between the two at the plate. Bader isn’t anything special at the plate, but he has enough pop in the bat to be a doubles or home-run threat.

The biggest issue for the Phillies is that Bader’s .258/.339/.439 slash line is a dramatic improvement over not only Rojas’ production in centerfield, but every outfielder currently on the roster. Fangraphs has the Phillies outfield at a combined 1.0 WAR (wins above replacement), good for 26th in baseball. The next closest team in a playoff position is, somewhat surprisingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers at 16th with a 3.9 WAR. Narrowing things down to individual stats, Bader’s 2.0 WAR would be fourth best on the team and by far the best among all Phillies outfielders. While this all sounds great, some of this is because of his defensive value instead of his bat. Castellanos offers more impact at the plate, but advanced metrics have him graded as arguably the worst defender in the entire sport, which dramatically reduces his overall value when using WAR.

As far as Bader’s actual counting stats, the results this season have generally been more positive than the last few years. His power numbers and walk rate are both up to his highest level since 2021. Bader has been better against right-handed pitching, but the Phillies are likely counting on him returning to his 2023 self when he mashed against lefties to the tune of a .936 OPS (on base plus slugging). The Phillies acquired him amid a hot streak with Bader posting a .952 OPS over 21 games in July. An ideal outfield construction moving forward probably is Marsh in LF, Bader splitting some time with Justin Crawford in CF, and Castellanos in RF.

The Prospects

Mick Abel (RHP)

Age: 23

Level: Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA)

Eduardo Tait (C)

Age: 18

Level: Jersey Shore Blue Claws (A+)

Hendry Mendez (OF)

Age: 21

Level: Reading Fightin Phils (AA)

Geremy Villoria (RHP)

Age: 16

Level: Dominican Summer League (Rookie league)

The Phillies gave up two well-known prospects and two that may not be as familiar to most fans. Abel has taken a big step forward after struggling last year at Lehigh Valley and will be an innings-eating back-end of the rotation starter at a minimum. I think he still has upside as a potential middle-of-the-rotation arm, but the Twins will need to continue to develop his offspeed pitches if he’s going to reach that ceiling.

Tait is the real star here and the player that is the most difficult to give up in a deal. He has shown double-plus power in the Florida Complex League and Clearwater. There’s swing and miss in his game, but he’s cut down his strikeout rate in recent weeks (though seemingly at the expense of some of his power numbers). He has a big arm, and if he sticks behind the plate instead of as a DH/1B type of player, he could be extremely valuable. The Phillies promoted him to High-A Jersey Shore aggressively, and he didn’t look out of place even as an 18-year-old playing against much older prospects. He’s become a top 100 prospect (top 50 on some boards), but is risky due to his age and potential move off of catcher. 

Hendry Mendez has had something of a breakout year in Reading this year while still being relatively young for the level at 21 years old. He has good plate discipline and contact skills, but is more of a corner outfield-only profile. Mendez played himself into the 10th-15th best prospect range in the system. The main reason the Phillies looked to trade a player who was playing well and with an up arrow is that he was Rule 5 eligible this offseason. This meant that the Phillies either needed to put Mendez on the 40-man roster this winter or risk losing him for nothing in the Rule 5 draft. Considering where the team is in their competitive window, the Phillies likely didn’t want to use a 40-man roster spot on a player that probably wouldn’t be ready to contribute to the big league club in 2026.